The European Central Bank could lower borrowing costs in both June and July, should disinflation in the euro zone be stronger than anticipated, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said.
Author of the article:
Bloomberg News
Alexander Weber
Published Apr 19, 2024 • 1 minute read
(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank could lower borrowing costs in both June and July, should disinflation in the euro zone be stronger than anticipated, Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said.
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The Lithuanian official said Europe can afford a “less restrictive monetary-policy stance” when the ECB meets in seven weeks’ time. But he said that initial reduction in the deposit rate — currently at a record-high 4% — is just part of a “series” of steps.
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“It’s all about data,” he said in an interview in Washington. “If disinflation is faster than in our projections, and if we have to lower our growth forecast for this year once again, that could form the basis for a cut in July.”
His view is at odds with some members of the ECB’s 26-strong Governing Council, who fret about delays in loosening by the Federal Reserve and the potential for rising Middle Eastern tensions to roil energy markets.
Speaking earlier Thursday, Austria’s Robert Holzmann said ECB policy probably can’t stray “too far away” from that of the Fed, and again stressed concerns over geopolitical uncertainty.
His Dutch counterpart Klaas Knot was a little more optimistic, however, telling Bloomberg Television that an oil-price shock may be easier to withstand at the moment since “it will be against a backdrop of general disinflation.”
Three of even four reductions in borrowing costs are possible in 2024, according to Simkus.
“The macroeconomic projections in June, September and December may form the basis for a gradual, consistent easing of the monetary-policy stance in three cuts,” he said. “I think three cuts this year is consistent with the baseline. Whether we’ll have four will depend on the data.”
—With assistance from Mark Schroers.
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